USAP-DC

{"dp_type": "Project", "free_text": "Forecast Model"}

[{"awards": "2233016 Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward", "bounds_geometry": "POLYGON((-180 -60,-144 -60,-108 -60,-72 -60,-36 -60,0 -60,36 -60,72 -60,108 -60,144 -60,180 -60,180 -63,180 -66,180 -69,180 -72,180 -75,180 -78,180 -81,180 -84,180 -87,180 -90,144 -90,108 -90,72 -90,36 -90,0 -90,-36 -90,-72 -90,-108 -90,-144 -90,-180 -90,-180 -87,-180 -84,-180 -81,-180 -78,-180 -75,-180 -72,-180 -69,-180 -66,-180 -63,-180 -60))", "dataset_titles": null, "datasets": null, "date_created": "Fri, 17 Feb 2023 00:00:00 GMT", "description": "In the austral winter of 2021/2022 a drastic decline in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) has taken place, and February 2022 marked the lowest SIE on record since consistent satellite sea ice observations began in 1979. Combined with the loss of SIE, the most extreme heat wave ever observed globally (as estimated by temperature anomalies from climatology) took place over East Antarctica in March 2022 as temperatures climbed over +40\u00b0C from climatology, an event that climate models struggle to replicate. Extreme events have an oversized footprint in socioeconomic impacts, but also serve as litmus tests for climate models and their predictive capabilities, and thus our understanding of extreme events and the ability of climate models in simulating such events is of key interest both in a scientific and social context. This project will use novel tools to diagnose the factors that led to the record low Antarctic SIE and heat wave focusing on the impact of winds and ocean temperatures. Currently (June 2022) Antarctic SIE remains at record low levels for the time of year, raising the prospect of a long-lasting period of low SIE, yet annual forecasts of Antarctic sea ice do not yet exist. To address this issue, this project will also create exploratory annual sea ice forecasts for the 2022-2024 period. \r\n\r\nThese extreme events have questioned our current understanding of Antarctic climate variability. Motivated by the timing of these events and our recent development of novel analysis tools, this project will address the following research questions:\r\n(R1) Can local winds account for the observed 2021/2022 sea ice loss, or are remote sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies a necessary ingredient?\r\n(R2) Are sea ice conditions over 2022-2024 likely to remain anomalously low?\r\n(R3) Can a state-of-the-art climate model simulate a heat wave of comparable magnitude to that observed if it follows the observed circulation that led to the heat wave?\r\nThe main approach will be to use a nudging technique with a climate model, in which one or several variables in a climate model are nudged toward observed values. The project authors used this tool to attribute Antarctic sea ice variability and trends over 1979-2018 to winds and SST anomalies. This project will apply this tool to the period 2019-2022 to address R1 and R3 by running two different model experiments over this time period in which the winds over Antarctica and SSTs in the Southern Ocean are nudged toward observed values. In addition, we will diagnose the relevant modes of atmospheric variability over 2019-2022 that are known to influence Antarctic sea ice to gain further insight into the 2022 loss of SIE. To address R2, we plan to extend the model simulations but without nudging, using the model as a forecast model (as its 2022 initial conditions will be taken from the end of the nudged simulations and capture important aspects of the observed state). We expect that if current upper ocean heat content is anomalously high, low SIE conditions may continue over 2022-2024, as happened over 2017-2019 following the previous record low of SIE in 2016/2017. To further address R3, we will compare observations and model simulations using novel atmospheric heat transport calculations developed by the project team. ", "east": 180.0, "geometry": "POINT(0 -89.999)", "instruments": null, "is_usap_dc": true, "keywords": "Antarctica; SURFACE TEMPERATURE", "locations": "Antarctica", "north": -60.0, "nsf_funding_programs": "Antarctic Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences", "paleo_time": null, "persons": "Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward", "platforms": null, "repositories": null, "science_programs": null, "south": -90.0, "title": "RAPID: What Caused the Record Warmth and Loss of Antarctic Sea ice in the Austral Summer of 2022, and will Sea Ice Remain Low Over 2022-2024?", "uid": "p0010405", "west": -180.0}, {"awards": "1744878 Lazzara, Matthew; 1745097 Cassano, John", "bounds_geometry": "POLYGON((-115 -79,-114.4 -79,-113.8 -79,-113.2 -79,-112.6 -79,-112 -79,-111.4 -79,-110.8 -79,-110.2 -79,-109.6 -79,-109 -79,-109 -79.1,-109 -79.2,-109 -79.3,-109 -79.4,-109 -79.5,-109 -79.6,-109 -79.7,-109 -79.8,-109 -79.9,-109 -80,-109.6 -80,-110.2 -80,-110.8 -80,-111.4 -80,-112 -80,-112.6 -80,-113.2 -80,-113.8 -80,-114.4 -80,-115 -80,-115 -79.9,-115 -79.8,-115 -79.7,-115 -79.6,-115 -79.5,-115 -79.4,-115 -79.3,-115 -79.2,-115 -79.1,-115 -79))", "dataset_titles": null, "datasets": null, "date_created": "Tue, 06 Jul 2021 00:00:00 GMT", "description": "An observational campaign, focused on the atmospheric boundary layer over the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS), is planned. A robust set of year-round, autonomous, atmospheric and surface measurements, will be made using an instrumented 30-m tall tower (TT) at the WAIS divide field camp (WAIS TT). An unmanned aerial system (UAS) field campaign will be conducted and will supplement the WAIS TT observations by sampling the entire depth of the boundary layer.\r\nThe proposed work will create a unique dataset of year-round atmospheric boundary layer measurements from a portion of the Antarctic continent that has not previously been observed in this manner. The newly acquired dataset will be used to elucidate the processes that modulate the exchange of energy between the ice sheet surface and the overlying atmosphere, to assess the relationships\r\nbetween near surface stability, winds, and radiative forcing, and to compare these relationships observed at the WAIS TT to those described for other portions of the Antarctic continent. The dataset will also be used to assess the ability of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) operational weather forecasting model and current generation reanalyses to accurately represent surface and boundary layer processes in this region of Antarctica.\r\nIntellectual Merit\r\nThe near surface atmosphere over West Antarctica is one of the fastest warming locations on the planet and this atmospheric warming, along with oceanic forcing, is contributing to ice sheet melt and rising sea levels. Recent reports from the National Research Council and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research have highlighted the critical nature of these aspects of the West Antarctic climate system.\r\nThe proposed research will advance our understanding of how the atmosphere exchanges heat, moisture, and momentum with the ice sheet surface in West Antarctica and will assess our ability to represent these processes in current generation numerical weather prediction and reanalysis products, by addressing the following scientific questions:\r\n- How does the surface layer and lower portion of the atmospheric boundary layer in West Antarctica compare to that over the low elevation ice shelves and the high elevation East Antarctic plateau?\r\n- What are the dominant factors that lead to warm episodes, and potentially periods of melt, over the West Antarctic ice sheet?\r\n- How well do operational forecast models (AMPS) and reanalyses reproduce the observed near surface stability in West Antarctica?\r\n- What are the sources of errors in the modeled near surface atmospheric stability of West Antarctica?\r\nBroader Impacts:\r\nAtmospheric warming and associated melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet has the potential to raise sea level by many meters. The proposed research will explore the processes that control this warming, and as such has broad societal relevance by providing improved understanding of the processes that could lead to large sea level rise.\r\nEducational outreach activities will include classroom visits to K-12 schools and Skype sessions from Antarctica with students at these schools. Photographs, videos, and instrumentation used during this project will be brought to the classrooms. At the college and university level data from the project will be used in classes being developed as part of a new undergraduate atmospheric and oceanic science major at the University of Colorado and a graduate student will be support on this project.\r\nPublic outreach will be in the form of field blogs, media interviews, and either an article for a general interest scientific magazine, such as Scientific American, or as an electronically published book of Antarctic fieldwork photographs.", "east": -109.0, "geometry": "POINT(-112 -79.5)", "instruments": null, "is_usap_dc": true, "keywords": "AMD; Amd/Us; HUMIDITY; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; West Antarctic Ice Sheet; BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE; USAP-DC; ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE MEASUREMENTS; FIELD SURVEYS; BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS; USA/NSF", "locations": "West Antarctic Ice Sheet", "north": -79.0, "nsf_funding_programs": "Antarctic Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences; Antarctic Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences", "paleo_time": null, "persons": "Cassano, John; Lazzara, Matthew", "platforms": "LAND-BASED PLATFORMS \u003e FIELD SITES \u003e FIELD SURVEYS", "repositories": null, "science_programs": null, "south": -80.0, "title": "Collaborative Research: Observing the Atmospheric Boundary over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet", "uid": "p0010225", "west": -115.0}, {"awards": "1066348 Reusch, David", "bounds_geometry": null, "dataset_titles": null, "datasets": null, "date_created": "Thu, 29 Sep 2011 00:00:00 GMT", "description": "This award supports a three-year effort to use nonlinear techniques to improve understanding of Antarctic climate through studies of observational and forecast model data sets; improve and extend reconstructions of past Antarctic climate from ice-core data; and reconstruct data missing from the observational records, potentially into the pre-instrumental era. The intellectual merit of the proposed activity arises from the opportunity to improve understanding of the past, present and future climate of the Antarctic, a key component in the global climate system. Self-organizing maps (SOMs), an emerging, powerful nonlinear tool, will be used to classify free-atmosphere reanalysis data into archetypal patterns (SOM states). Feed-forward artificial neural networks (FF-ANNs) will then be trained to predict the preferred SOM states from ice-core data covering the instrumental era. The trained FF-ANNs will extend the reconstructions of SOM states to the full length of the ice core data, leading to long-term reconstruction of climate. Histories of surface conditions will be improved by filling data gaps in observational records using FF-ANNs and free-atmosphere reanalysis data. These records may also be extended into the pre-instrumental era using the above ice-core based reconstructions of the atmospheric circulation. The broader impacts of the project relate to activities with the Earth and Mineral Sciences Museum (co-located in the Geosciences building) which will bring project results/tools to a wider audience through development of interactive graphical visualizations/presentations for the Museum\u0027s fixed and traveling GeoWall displays. One or more undergraduates from the College will be involved in the project with an option to also present project results at a national meeting/workshop. The work will also contribute to the continuing development of an \"early career\" investigator, including the opportunity to continue building (and refining) relevant and useful skills in teaching, outreach, collaboration, etc.", "east": null, "geometry": null, "instruments": null, "is_usap_dc": false, "keywords": "LABORATORY; Climate; Reanalyses; Model; Forecast Model; Model Output", "locations": null, "north": null, "nsf_funding_programs": "Antarctic Glaciology", "paleo_time": null, "persons": "Reusch, David", "platforms": "OTHER \u003e PHYSICAL MODELS \u003e LABORATORY", "repositories": null, "science_programs": null, "south": null, "title": "Observations, Reanalyses and Ice Cores: A Synthesis of West Antarctic Climate", "uid": "p0000098", "west": null}]

View results on map Help on results map